Surfaces, Balls and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|